ENGLISH
Reality checks with the elections; Feb. 20th was just another day in the Iranian history.
Goudarz Eghtedari*
A quarter century ago this month the Islamic Revolution in Iran shocked the world. Of the three historical pillars of society (Royal Court, Mosque, and People) one, the Royal Court vanished forever, but the Ayatollahs were not exactly what we had hoped for. Nevertheless, the theocratic regime that came to power was a direct result of the policies of the West, which was trying to create and promote an Islamic buffer zone between the Soviets and the oil fields of the Middle East. And since no civil society existed and all secular dissidents were either jailed or silenced, it was inevitable to see Mullahs taking over. Considering Saddam is gone and Najaf and Karbala can be the destination for Iranian pilgrims, the eight years of war with Iraq that followed are now just another story in elementary school history books. Six years ago a reformist movement brought hope for a long overdue transfer of power to the people and for a genuine democracy to flourish in Iran. That promise did not materialize and Iranian history expects another turn today.
The theocratic constitution allows for the religious un-elected Guardian Council (GC) to veto candidates, if they are deemed to not fully be committed to the spiritual leadership, before they stand for elections. Last month the hardliner factions of the government excluded the reformists from running for the Majlis (parliament). In other words: like in any other totalitarian regime the election was between those who pass the loyalty tests. More than two thousand candidates, including more than 100 of the current deputies of the Parliament who had dared to criticize the fundamentalists in the past few years, were disqualified before the February's elections. The dissidents' four week long sit-in at the Majlis building did not change the outcome and hardliners moved to execute what is now known as a parliamentarian coup d'etat. The government of President Khatami also went along with the hard-liners and betrayed his reformist supporters. Consequently the majority of the population, including students, women, intellectuals, journalists, political reformists, and in summary all those who have been forces for a democratic society, boycotted the elections and announced the process to be illegal, and an unjust mockery.
It is now a common belief that the revolution has betrayed the majority of its population and that another phase in the struggle for democracy has begun. A new power structure is in the making; the theocratic state has failed its people and it is the people's turn to draw the lines between themselves and the last remaining pillar of this 6 thousands year old society. In a society were Islamic traditions used to exclude women from participating in the public life, there are now more women attending universities than men (55% to 45%). Universal ideals such as human rights and the right to self-governance and non-violent resistance are at forefronts of people's demands. Internet and satellite communication have brought Iran into the global village that is beyond the control of Ayatollahs. In addition to newspapers on-line, tens of thousands of individual weblogers have found the cyber space as a sanctuary for their thoughts. The genie is out of the bottle and people are going to pass all barriers, including the mockery elections and the brutal police power that is controlled by the theocracy.
Looking at results of the Feb. twentieth elections, it is apparent that voter participation has dropped dramatically this year. Over all in the country participation in the elections decreased from 69.23% in 2000 to 50.57% this year. But the rates of participation in large cities have dropped even deeper and one can see a trend that can be correlated adversely to the population. For example in five cities with more than a million eligible voters that include 11.13 million or 24% of the whole country, this rate has dropped from 55% to 31% within the last four years. In Tehran, the capital, only 28% took part in elections while in small cities where the hardliners had more control up to 117% of the eligible voters are shown to have cast their ballots!, which shows even this level of support of election is not reliable.
Released data shows that even in religious and more traditional cities there has not been the same enthusiasm as in the past; i.e. only 50.75% in Qom and 47% in Mashad has participated in the process. Also note that as expected within states with ethnicity problems such as Kurdistan and Azerbaijan dissatisfaction is higher and only 32.26% and 43.98 chose to vote. Since no exit polls allowed in Iran during elections unfortunately no other data such as gender or age participation could be analyzed.
After all elections showed that although popularity of the Islamic regime especially in urban areas has tremendously decreased the stability of the system couldn't be questioned just yet. It should be noted however that the Islamic Republic has started to shape itself into a strategy that is known as "Negotiating with superpowers on the top and forcefully eliminating internal dissidents at the bottom". A portion of the Iranian government who consider themselves pragmatists and consists of moderate conservatives, right wing of the reformists, and with support of the religious leadership has initiated contacts with the US congress and European Union among other things. The chief negotiator for the nuclear fiasco, Hassan Rouhani met European Union leaders last month and Mohsen Rezayi met with American delegates in Athens a while back. These two as well as majority of key personnel in the Foreign Ministry and the Iranian mission to UN who are believed to be connected to Mr. Rafsanjani's entourage, and some technocrats from the government who had control of Oil, commerce and industries are known to support the pragmatist ideas. This idea which prescribes a china model for development and economic growth was followed during Mr. Rafsanjani’s presidency of early ‘90s.
Let us hope that the needs of the US for stability in Iraq will not compromise the Iranian people's bid for change and democracy. Ending the theocratic politics and turning religion into a private matter is what Iran and the rest of the Middle East need, and what the majority of the people in Iran are longing for.
*Goudarz Eghtedari is a Human Rights and Peace activist, a community organizer, a writer, a commentator, and a radio producer with KBOO 90.7 fm (www.voicesofthemiddleeast.com). Goudarz has served on the boards of the Oregon Peace Institute and the Iranian Human Rights Group and is a guest lecturer at Portland State University, where he is a Ph.D. Candidate of Systems Science.